Which center would you pay more?

Two big men through their rookie contracts — without knowing where they were drafted.
Center ACenter B
Minutes (Yrs 1–4)7,2479,117
True Shooting.623.651
Per 75 possessions19.2 pts · 12.4 reb · 1.2 blk15.1 pts · 11.7 reb · 2.0 blk
BPM (Yrs 1–4)+1.14+1.16
xRAPM (Yrs 1–4)+0.4+0.1
Contract Year xRAPM (Year 4)+0.50+0.70
Take a guess before you reveal.
Deandre Ayton
Pick 1 · 2018
Blind model valuation
17.6% of cap
Actual second contract
25.0% of cap
$30.9M in year one — the maximum
Jarrett Allen
Pick 22 · 2017
Blind model valuation
16.7% of cap
Actual second contract
17.8% of cap
$20.0M flat per year
The model valued them almost identically. The market didn’t.