Does Pedigree Afford Underperformers More Chances?
top 5 top 5 (n=13, median yr-4 xRAPM -1.70) — got a real second chance: 85% (11/13)
85% (11) top 5 (n=13, median yr-4 xRAPM -1.70) — lingered / pending: 15% (2/13)
15% (2) top 5 (n=13, median yr-4 xRAPM -1.70) — out of the league: 0% (0/13)
n=13 picks 6-10 picks 6-10 (n=18, median yr-4 xRAPM -1.90) — got a real second chance: 72% (13/18)
72% (13) picks 6-10 (n=18, median yr-4 xRAPM -1.90) — lingered / pending: 28% (5/18)
28% (5) picks 6-10 (n=18, median yr-4 xRAPM -1.90) — out of the league: 0% (0/18)
n=18 picks 11-14 picks 11-14 (n=13, median yr-4 xRAPM -1.20) — got a real second chance: 92% (12/13)
92% (12) picks 11-14 (n=13, median yr-4 xRAPM -1.20) — lingered / pending: 0% (0/13)
picks 11-14 (n=13, median yr-4 xRAPM -1.20) — out of the league: 8% (1/13)
8% n=13 late 1st late 1st (n=47, median yr-4 xRAPM -1.30) — got a real second chance: 77% (36/47)
77% (36) late 1st (n=47, median yr-4 xRAPM -1.30) — lingered / pending: 21% (10/47)
21% (10) late 1st (n=47, median yr-4 xRAPM -1.30) — out of the league: 2% (1/47)
n=47 2nd round 2nd round (n=41, median yr-4 xRAPM -2.10) — got a real second chance: 49% (20/41)
49% (20) 2nd round (n=41, median yr-4 xRAPM -2.10) — lingered / pending: 44% (18/41)
44% (18) 2nd round (n=41, median yr-4 xRAPM -2.10) — out of the league: 7% (3/41)
n=41 undrafted undrafted (n=17, median yr-4 xRAPM -1.40) — got a real second chance: 53% (9/17)
53% (9) undrafted (n=17, median yr-4 xRAPM -1.40) — lingered / pending: 29% (5/17)
29% (5) undrafted (n=17, median yr-4 xRAPM -1.40) — out of the league: 18% (3/17)
18% (3) n=17 got a real second chance (800+ min season, yr 5+) lingered / pending out of the league
Underperformer = negative xRAPM in a 400+ minute year-4 season; the below-replacement subset (< −2) is discussed in the article. Hover segments for exact shares, counts, and pool quality (median yr-4 xRAPM) — the undrafted pool is less deeply negative (−1.4) than the second-round pool (−2.1), a survivorship artifact discussed in the article.